USD/INR Price News: Indian Rupee begins RBI week on a back foot near 82.50 as US NFP favors Fed hawks


USD/INR stays on the front foot after reversing from 13-day low on Friday.
Strong US NFP renews hawkish Fed concerns while softer India data allows RBI to defend status quo.
Risk-off mood, higher Oil price also weigh on Indian Rupee ahead of the key week.
Second-tier US data, risk catalysts may entertain intraday traders.

USD/INR extends recovery from 50-day EMA to around 82.50 heading into Monday’s European session. In doing so, the Indian Rupee (INR) pair cheers the US Dollar strength, as well as downbeat sentiment and the firmer Crude Oil price to propel the pair of late.

Adding strength to the USD/INR recovery could be the consolidation ahead of this week’s Reserve Bank of India (RBI) Monetary Policy Meeting, up for Thursday.

Above all, a monetary policy divergence between the Fed and the RBI, mainly due to the latest streams of the US and India data, allow the USD/INR pair to remain firmer. Adding strength to the USD/INR pair could be the latest strength of the WTI Crude Oil and the risk-off mood, led by the fears of the US-China tussle and the Russia-Ukraine war.

That said, Friday’s US NFP bolstered calls for the Fed’s 0.25% rate hike in June, as well as slashed the odds favoring the Fed rate cut in 2023. The same allowed the US Dollar Index (DXY) to remain firmer and favor the corrective bounce in the US Treasury bond yields.

On the other hand, the market’s sour sentiment due to the geopolitical concerns about China, Russia, Ukraine and the US join the concerns about the RBI’s likely monetary policy inaction, mainly due to the Indian economics suggesting easy inflation and softer growth, to propel the USD/INR price.

Against this backdrop, the US 10-year and two-year Treasury bond yields recover after snapping a three-week uptrend by the end of the last Friday. That said, the S&P500 Futures also portray the risk-off mood by mild losses as it retreats from the highest levels since August 2022. The same underpins the US Dollar Index (DXY) strength ahead of the US Factory Orders and ISM Services PMI for May.

Moving on, US Factory Orders and ISM Services PMI for May will entertain intraday traders whereas Thursday’s RBI Interest Rate Decision becomes the key event for the USD/INR pair watchers.

Technical analysis

A clear rebound from the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), around 82.30 by the press time, allows USD/INR bulls to aim for a one-week-old descending resistance line of near 82.65.


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GBP/JPY Price Analysis: Hits YTD highs on risk-on sentiment, retraces as a rising wedge forms


GBP/JPY surges to year’s high, up by 0.18%, amid positive market sentiment.
Expectations of a dovish Fed and resolution of the US debt-ceiling imbue strength to high beta currencies.
Despite the overall upward bias, the technical outlook suggests potential downside pressure on GBP/JPY.

GBP/JPY climbed to fresh year-to-date (YTD) highs at 174.68 before a pullback that dragged the exchange rate toward the 174.10s area. A risk-on impulse caused expectations for a dovish US Federal Reserve (Fed) amongst geopolitical issues like the US debt-ceiling resolution underpinned high beta currencies. Therefore, safe-haven peers persisted pressured, as the GBP/JPY traded at 174.12, up 0.18%.

GBP/JPY Price Analysis: Technical outlook

The GBP/JPY is still upward biased, confirmed by price action widening its distance from the Tenkan-Sen and Kijun-Sen lines below the exchange rate. In addition, price action is another bullish signal above the Ichimoku cloud.

Nevertheless, an upslope resistance trendline from the May 2 highs cushioned the GBP/JPY rally; while a support trendline, drawn from the April and May lows, indicates a rising wedge forming. That means further downside pressure is expected.

If GBP/JPY falls below the 174.00 figure, the next support would be the Tenkan-Sen at 172.95. A breach of the latter will expose the 2022 high turned support at 172.13 before testing April 28 daily high at 171.16. Conversely, the uptrend would continue above the YTD high at 174.68 once cleared, and the GBP/JPY could rally to the 175.00 mark, followed by the 2016 high at 177.37.

GBP/JPY Price Action – Daily chart


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USD/CAD drops as CAD flexes strength, despite stellar US NFP report


US adds 339K jobs, beating estimates, but USD/CAD stays tepid.
CAD gains momentum on a 1.70% surge in WTI Crude Oil prices.
Uncertain Fed rate hike in July overshadows USD’s future trajectory.

USD/CAD registers modest losses after an outstanding jobs report in the United States (US) would likely keep the US Federal Reserve (Fed) hitting the economy’s brakes, despite recent dovish comments supporting a pause. Nevertheless, the US Dollar (USD) continued to weaken while the Loonie (CAD) strengthened. At the time of writing, the USD/CAD is trading at 1.3428, down 0.16%.

Strong job growth figures unable to buoy USD; WTI Crude Oil surge lifts CAD, sparking a USD/CAD shake-up

The USD/CAD stopped its fall at around the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 1.3417 on the release of May’s US Nonfarm Payrolls report, revealed by the US Department of Labor. The US economy created 339K jobs in the economy, crushing estimates of 190K, though the Unemployment Rate ticked higher to 3.7% from 3.4%, a 53-year low level.

Although the data supported a stronger US Dollar, the USD/CAD treads water after printing a daily low of 1.3406 ahead of the Nonfarm Payrolls release.

Given the backdrop, crude oil prices were another factor that boosted the CAD, with Western Texas Intermediate (WTI), the US crude oil benchmark, recovering ground gaining 1.70%, at $71.33 per barrel, along with a risk-on impulse, that keeps the greenback pressured through pairing some losses.

The US Dollar Index (DXY), a measure that tracks the buck’s value vs. six currencies, edges up 0.31%, at 103.888, underpinned by increased bets for a July rate hike by the Fed. According to the recent update from the CME FedWatch Tool, the Federal Reserve will likely maintain the current interest rates steady for the month. However, the forecast for July is considerably less definitive, with the likelihood of a rate change teetering at approximately 50.7%.

Source: CME Fed Watch Tool

An absent Canadian economic docket left USD/CAD traders leaning on the dynamics of the US Dollar. But recent data showing strong growth in the Canadian economy puts pressure on the Bank of Canada (BoC) to further tighten the economy, at the threat of elevated inflationary pressures.

USD/CAD Price Analysis: Technical outlook

USD/CAD Daily chart

From a technical perspective, USD/CAD faced solid support at the 200-day EMA, with buyers piling in, driving the price 30 pips up. Nevertheless, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator and the 3-day Rate of Change (RoC) in bearish territory suggest downside action in the near term. Therefore, the USD/CAD could be pressured, with support back at the 200-day EMA at 1.3417, before testing 1.3400. Break below will expose May’s low of 1.3314. Conversely, the USD/CAD first resistance would be the 1.3500 figure, followed by the 100-day EMA at 1.3510.


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USD/MXN Price Analysis: Mexican Peso bears attack 17.69 confluence level


USD/MXN picks up bids to extend previous recovery from fortnight low.
Convergence of 100-HMA, one-week-old descending trend line prod pair buyers.
200-HMA acts as additional hurdle for Mexican Peso sellers.
Two-week-old horizontal support is the key for pair bears to conquer.

USD/MXN holds onto the previous day’s recovery from a two-week low as bulls poke a 17.69 resistance confluence during early Wednesday.

In doing so, the Mexican Peso (MXN) pair struggles to extend recovery from a fortnight-long horizontal support while jostling with the short-term key upside hurdle comprising the 100-Hour Moving Average (HMA) and a one-week-old descending trend line.

It’s worth noting that the overbought RSI (14) conditions challenge the USD/MXN buyers around the 17.69 resistance confluence.

Even if the quote crosses the 17.69 key resistance, the 17.70 round figure and the 200-HMA level of 17.76 may act as extra filters toward the north ahead of directing the pair buyers toward the monthly peak of near the 18.00 round figure.

Alternatively, the USD/MXN pair’s pullback remains elusive unless the quote stays beyond the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of May 15-23 upside, near 17.64 at the latest.

Should the quote drops below 17.64, it can drop to the aforementioned two-week-old horizontal support zone surrounding 17.54-53.

The USD/MXN pair’s south-run towards the multi-month low marked earlier in May around 17.42 and the year 2016 low of near 17.05 can’t be ruled out.

USD/MXN: Hourly chart

Trend: Limited upside expected


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NZD/USD Price Analysis: Bulls moving in for possible run towards trendline resistance


NZD/USD bulls coming into the market. 
Bearish impulse could be on the verge of a significant correction. 

NZD/USD bears are lurking in a shallow correction of the daily bearish impulse as the following will illustrate in a top-down analysis starting on the daily chart.

NZD/USD daily chart

The price is embedded below prior support structure that could now be expected to act as resistance on the correction. 

However, if bears fail to fend off the bulls, the Fibonacci scale will then come into focus near 0.6150 which guards a move to test the trendline resistance. 

NZD/SD H4 chart

The price may already be on the verge of extending lower on a break of support.

NZD/USD H1 chart

On the hourly chart, 0.6050 is an important support level that guards risk to restest the lows.

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Yellen extends earliest potential US default date to June 5


Reuters reported that the US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen spoke on Friday and extended the deadline for raising the federal debt limit, saying the government could default on its debt as early as June 5 without increasing the country’s $31.4 trillion debt ceiling.

Yellen had previously put that date as in early June, or potentially as early as June 1.

Meanwhile, the US Dollar was set for a third straight weekly gain on Friday. The US Dollar index DXY, which tracks the currency against six major counterparts, was last at 104.23%.

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Oil price finds its feet after steep sell-off on mixed OPEC+ messaging


Oil price recovers after the steep sell-off on Thursday due to mixed messaging from OPEC+ members.
Russia’s Novak says production cuts are unlikely whilst Saudi Oil Minister seems to imply the opposite. 
US Dollar corrects after strong rally, giving Oil a backdraught.  

Oil price steadies on Friday after the previous day’s tumble, as traders weigh conflicting messages from two of the largest members of OPEC+ and the US Dollar weakens. Russia’s Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said that he did not think further cuts would be announced, when only a few days earlier, the Saudi Oil Minister, Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman, seemed to suggest the opposite. The next OPEC+ meeting is on June 4. 

At the time of writing, WTI Oil is trading in the upper $72s and Brent Crude Oil in the upper $76s.  

Oil news and market movers 

Russia’s Novak plays down the idea of production cuts, saying, “I don’t think that there will be any new steps, because just a month ago certain decisions were made regarding the voluntary reduction of oil production by some countries…” 
This seems to contradict comments from Saudi Oil Minister, Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman, who said on Tuesday speculators (interpreted as short-sellers by the media) should “watch out”, seeming to imply OPEC+ may announce cuts. 
Abdulaziz defended OPEC’s decision to cut production by 2 million barrels per day (bpd) at its meeting in October 2022. Given the Oil price is at similar levels to October, it further suggests a possible supply cut in June. 
The US Dollar recovers after Core Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) data for April – the US Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge – shows an uptick in inflation to 4.7% YoY in April and 0.4% MoM, versus expectations that were a basis point lower for both.
Durable Goods data comes out mixed, with headline Durable Goods in April rising 1.1% versus the consensus estimate of a 1.0% decline. Yet Durable Goods ex Defence and ex Transport both fell when they were expected to rise.  
A lack of traction in US debt-ceiling talks weighs on the Oil price as it raises the specter of the US defaulting, triggering a global recession.
That said, past experience points to a high likelihood of the two parties agreeing a last minute deal which will act as a bullish catalyst for Oil. 

Crude Oil Technical Analysis: Triangle formation hinting end of downtrend?

WTI Oil is in a long-term downtrend from a technical perspective, making successive lower lows. Given the old adage that the trend is your friend, this favors short positions over long positions. WTI Oil is trading below all the major daily Simple Moving Averages (SMA) and all the weekly SMAs except the 200-week, which is at $66.90. 

WTI US Oil: Daily Chart

A right-angled triangle has probably finished forming since price recovered from the May 4 YTD lows, as shown by the dotted lines on the chart above. 

There is a chance the triangle might break out in either direction, but it is biased to break higher because the top border is very flat (it is right-angled). A breakout higher could see price rise in a volatile rally to a potential target in the $79.70s, calculated by using the usual technical method, which is to take 61.8% of the height of the triangle and extrapolate it from the breakout point higher. Oil price could even go as far as a 100% extrapolation in bullish cases, however, the 61.8% level roughly coincides with the 200-day SMA and the main trendline for the bear market, heightening its importance as a key resistance level. 

Assuming Oil price reaches its target, a bullish break would also signify that price had surpassed the $76.85 lower high of April 28, thereby, bringing the dominant bear trend into doubt.

The three green bars in a row that represent the rally this week and the tentative breakout above the topside of the triangle, that accompanied Wednesday’s rally, are a bullish sign. It suggests there is still a chance price could recover after Thursday’s sell-off and eventually continue breaking out higher. 

As well as the triangle, the long hammer Japanese candlestick pattern that formed at the May 4 (and year-to-date) lows is a sign that it could be a key strategic bottom. 

Further, the mild bullish convergence between price and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at the March and May 2023 lows – with price making a lower low in May that is not matched by a lower low in RSI – is a sign that bearish pressure is easing. 

That said, until Oil price actually climbs above the $76.85 mark, the downtrend is dominant, and there is still a possibility WTI Oil price could break out lower. A decisive piercing below the triangle’s lower border would be required for confirmation, targeting $67.27, which is just above where the 200-week SMA is located and likely to offer good support. Traders might even wish to wait for a break below the lows of the triangle’s Wave B at $69.40 for added confirmation.

WTI US Oil: Weekly Chart

A break below the year-to-date (YTD) lows of $64.31 would be required to re-ignite the downtrend, with the next target at around $62.00 where trough lows from 2021 will come into play, followed by support at $57.50.


What is WTI Oil?

WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media.

What factors drive the price of WTI Oil?

Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa.

How does inventory data impact the price of WTI Oil

The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency.

How does OPEC influence the price of WTI Oil?

OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 13 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.


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Japan’s Suzuki: FX rates should be set by market based on fundamentals


Japan Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki said on Friday, “FX rates should be set by the market based on fundamentals.”

Additional takeaways

Japan remains world’s largest net creditor nation for 32 years in row as of 2022.

Closely watching FX moves.

Closely watching US debt ceiling talks.

Won’t comment in detail on assumption US may default on its debt.

There are concerns about impact on global economy if US defaulted on its debt.

Related reads

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Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD bears move in and eye critical support near $1,950


Gold price is attempting to move lower into support following FOMC minutes.
Fed minutes show officials split on support for more hikes.

 The Gold price is mixed around the Federal Open Market Committee minutes that showed that the board members agreed that inflation risks are still unacceptably high but officials also generally agreed that the extent of further hikes are less certain. Gold price has ranged between a low of $1,961 and a high of $1,965 so far around the event but has traveled in a wider range of between $1,956.77 and $1,985.39 on the day so far.

FOMC minutes, key notes

Some participants commented that additional policy firming would likely be warranted at future meetings.
Some participants stressed it was crucial that policy that the statement not signal the likelihood of rate cuts this year or rule out further hikes.
Fed staff continue to forecast mild recession starting later this year, followed by a modestly-paced recovery.
Several participants said if the economy evolved along lines of their outlooks, further policy firming might not be needed.
Participants generally agreed that the extent to which further interest rate hikes may be appropriate had become less certain.
Many participants focused on need to retain optionality after May meeting.
Participants judged that the banking sector stress would likely weigh on economic activity but to an uncertain extent.
Participants agreed that inflation was unacceptably high, and are declining slower than they had expected.
Some participants noted concerns that the Federal debt limit may not be raised in a timely manner, threatening significant financial system disruptions, and tighter financial conditions.

Overall, the Fed minutes show officials were split on support for more hikes. As such, the market is directionless. 

Meanwhile, analysts at TD Securities explained that the debt ceiling headlines are noisy, but there is still signal in the noise.

´´Gold prices managed to rally yesterday despite headwinds from a rising broad dollar, which reveals notable demand behind the scenes. This fits into our view for imminent selling exhaustion in precious metals. In fact, we argue the positioning set-up is favorable for gold bulls, which have kept their position sizes contained, whereas systematic trend followers still hold a high bar for additional CTA liquidations,´´ the analysts explained. 

´´Importantly,´´ they said, ´´discretionary traders have yet to buy into the rally, which contrasts with the typical recessionary playbook.´´

´´Meanwhile, pressure on the banking sector is persisting, and data is likely to moderate further and drive expectations for a deepening cutting cycle on the horizon. Recent liquidations and short acquisitions may ultimately add dry-powder for additional price gains,´´ the analysts concluded. 

Gold technical analysis

The Gold price is testing the support structure, but while below the trendline resistance, the bias is bearish:

Bears will need to get below $1,950 to confirm the prospects of a continuation into the longs that were building since March. 

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USD/CAD retreats from one-week high amid rising Oil prices, stronger USD to limit the downside


USD/CAD gains some positive traction and climbs to over a one-week high on Tuesday.
A combination of factors continues to push the USD higher and lend support to the pair.
An intraday rise in Crude Oil prices underpins the Loonie and caps any meaningful gains.

The USD/CAD pair struggles to capitalize on its intraday positive move and retreats a few pips from the vicinity of mid-1.3500s, or over a one-week high touched earlier this Tuesday. The pair trades with a mild positive bias heading into the North American session and is currently placed just above the 1.3500 psychological mark.

Crude Oil prices rally over 1% amid hopes for an improvement in US fuel demand and disruptions in Canadian supply due to wildfires in the oil-rich Alberta province. This, in turn, underpins the commodity-linked Loonie and turns out to be a key factor acting as a headwind for the USD/CAD pair, though resurgent US Dollar (USD) demand should help limit the downside, at least for the time being. In fact, the USD Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback against a basket of currencies, climbs to a fresh two-month high and draws support from a combination of factors.

The overnight hawkish remarks by a slew of influential Federal Reserve (Fed) officials lifted market bets that the US central bank will keep interest rates higher for longer. This, along with hopes that US politicians can come together on a debt ceiling deal, keeps the US Treasury bond yields elevated and continues to benefit the Greenback. Apart from this, worries over slowing global growth, particularly in China, further benefit the Greenback’s relative safe-haven status and contribute to limiting any meaningful pullback for the USD/CAD pair, at least for the time being.

Market participants now look forward to the US economic docket, featuring the flash PMI prints, New Home Sales data and the Richmond Manufacturing Index. This, along with the debt ceiling talks and the US bond yields, will influence the USD demand and provide some impetus to the USD/CAD pair. Traders will further take cues from Oil price dynamics to grab short-term opportunities. Meanwhile, the aforementioned mixed fundamental backdrop and the recent range-bound price action witnessed over the past week or so warrant some caution before placing directional bets.

Technical levels to watch


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