Silver Price Analysis: XAG/USD reached a new two-day high but fell short of $24.00

XAG/USD stays firm and climbs as the US Dollar remains offered across the board.
Silver Price Analysis: Range-bound but could turn bullish above $24.50; otherwise, it could re-test the 50-DMA.

Silver price extended its gains for the second consecutive day, cleared Thursday’s daily high of $23.93, and held its ground above the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), reaching a new two-day high at $24.07. Nevertheless, as the North American session progressed, the XAG/USD retraced below $24.00 and is trading at $23.93.

Silver Price Analysis: XAG/USD Technical Outlook

XAG/USD daily chart suggests the white metal is peaking at around the $24.50 area, despite breaching the 20-day EMA on Thursday. After testing the YTD high of $24.54 twice during the month, XAG/USD dropped to its 2023 low of $23.12 and, since then, has not been able to crack the $24.00 figure decisively. Further, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) resumed its upward trajectory, but the Rate of Change (RoC) suggests that buyers are gathering some momentum.

Given the above scenario, if XAG/USD clears $24.50, that would keep buyers in charge, and it would open the door to test the $25.00 psychological level. A break above will expose the April 18 daily high at $26.21.

As an alternate scenario, the XAG/USD first support would be the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 23.69. A breach of the latter would send Silver sliding toward the January 19 pivot low of $23.17, ahead of the $23.00 figure, which sits slightly above the 50-day EMA at $22.91.

Silver Key Technical Levels

 

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Silver to perform well as investors look for cheaper alternatives to Gold – ANZ

Silver prices have risen by 27% since mid-October 2022. Economists at ANZ Bank expect XAG/USD to perform well in 2023.

Silver should not be ignored

“We expect prices to correct in the short-term, but fundamentals are likely to be supportive over the next 12 months.”

“The supply-demand balance looks strong. The growing adoption of green energy sources continues to favour fabrication demand for Silver. Silver stocks are falling at exchanges, suggesting a tighter market. Bar and coin demand continued to be high, and the premium for coins remains elevated.”

“We expect Silver to perform well, in tandem with Gold, as investors look for cheaper alternatives to the yellow metal.”

 

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Could Netflix (NFLX Stock) drop towards the 300 level?

Today’s instrument is the Netflix Inc.‘s stock traded in Nasdaq exchange under the ticker NFLX.

Looking at the NFLX ‘s chart, we can see that after an upward price movement, it was lastly traded at around $326.

Tomorrow, it is announcing its quarterly earnings, and if the market’s anticipation is positive then we should expect a further price increase today, testing its resistance level at around $330 with high possibility to break through it.

On the other hand, it could drop towards its support level at around $300.

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Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD retreats towards $1,900 as markets doubt strong China growth

Gold price extends the week-start pullback from multi-month high.
China reports upbeat GDP, Industrial Production and Retail Sales but NBS comments challenge optimism.
Return of full markets underpins US Treasury yields rebound and challenge XAU/USD bulls.

Gold price (XAU/USD) drops for the second consecutive day after poking the highest levels since April 2022, down 0.20% intraday as sellers keep the reins near $1,910 during early Tuesday.

US Dollar Index rebound from the seven-month low, amid firmer US Treasury bond yields, underpinned the Gold price pullback on Monday. However, the price-negative market sentiment even after China’s upbeat economics seemed to have weighed on the XAU/USD of late.

Talking about the data, China’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the fourth quarter (Q4) printed 0.0% QoQ figure versus -0.8% expected and 3.9% prior. Further details suggest that the Industrial Production for December grew 1.3% YoY versus 0.5% market forecasts and 2.2% prior readings. Additionally, Retail Sales improved to -1.8% YoY for December compared to -7.8% consensus and -5.9% prior.

It should be observed, however, that the China National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) mentioned after the data that the foundation for economic recovery is not solid yet.

Also read: China’s NBS: Foundation for economic recovery not solid yet

Other than the NBS comments, the market’s lack of acceptance of the upbeat China data, amid hopes of witnessing a downbeat outcome due to the COVID-19 woes, also seemed to have weighed on the sentiment and the XAU/USD prices. Furthermore, recently positive US sentiment figures and the inflation expectations conveyed on Friday, probed the previously dovish bias for the Federal Reserve (Fed) and hence underpin a rebound in the US Treasury bond yields.

That said, the S&P 500 Futures print mild losses as it retreats from the monthly high while the US 10-year Treasury yields defend the week-start recovery, up two basis points (bps) near 3.54% by the press time.

Moving on, Gold traders should wait for the second-tier US data like NY Empire State Manufacturing Index for January, expected -4.5 versus -11.2 prior, for clear directions. However, major attention will be given to Wednesday’s US Retail Sales for December, expected 0.1% YoY versus -0.6% prior.

Gold price technical analysis

A clear downside break of the three-day-old bullish channel favors Gold sellers as they approach the previous resistance line from January 09, close to $1,898 by the press time.

That said, the bearish MACD signals and downbeat RSI (14), not oversold, also keep the Gold bears hopeful.

It’s worth noting that the $1,900 threshold can act as immediate downside support while the 200-HMA level surrounding $1,878 could probe the XAU/USD bears afterward.

Alternatively, the stated channel’s lower line, close to $1,923 at the latest, restricts the immediate upside of the XAU/USD.

Following that, an ascending trend line from the last Thursday, near $1,947, could challenge the Gold buyers before directing them toward the April 2022 peak surrounding $1,998.

Gold price: Hourly chart

Trend: Further downside expected

 

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USD/CAD Price Analysis: Stalled its rally at the 100-DMA, dropped beneath 1.3400

USD/CAD finished Friday’s session with gains, though it faltered to clear 1.3400.
USD/CAD Price Analysis: Exposed to selling pressure below 1.3400.

The USD/CAD prolonged its weekly losses and tumbled for the fourth consecutive week, losing 0.36%, but on the day, the USD/CAD is up 0.22%. After the University of Michigan (UoM) Consumer Sentiment release showed that sentiment improved, it weighed on the US Dollar (USD). Therefore, the USD/CAD is trading at 1.3393, below its opening price by 0.37%.

USD/CAD Price Analysis: Technical outlook

Once the USD/CAD dropped below the 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 1.3425, it was the seller’s excuse to drag the exchange rate below the 1.3400 mark. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is still in bearish territory, suggesting that sellers are in charge. The Rate of Change (RoC) shows sellers are gathering momentum, as they outweighed buyers in Friday’s session, though it wasn’t enough to keep the pair in the green.

The USD/CAD first support level would be the November 24 daily low of 1.3316. A breach of the latter will expose the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 1.3239, followed by the 1.3200 figure.

On the other hand, the USD/CAD first resistance would be 1.3400. Once cleared, the bear’s next line of defense would be the 100-day EMA at 1.3425, ahead of the confluence of the 20-day EMA and the 1.3500 mark.

USD/CAD Key Technical Levels

 

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EUR/CHF: Room for the Euro to extend the move higher – MUFG

Analysts at MUFG Bank have a bullish outlook for the EUR/CHF cross, considering it could benefit from a further scaling back of fears over recession in the Eurozone.

Key quotes:

“After trading within a narrow range between 0.9800 and 0.9950 throughout most of Q4, the pair has broken higher in recent days as it first climbed above the 200-day moving average at 0.9940 and then above parity for the first time since the middle of last year. We expect a further move higher back towards levels that were in place during Q2 of last year between 1.0200 and 1.0500.”

“The release today of the latest German GDP data for Q4 has provided further evidence that euro-zone economies are proving more resilient over the winter period.”

“Given the CHF’s role as a regional safe haven currency, the CHF should weaken as downside risks in the euro-zone continue to ease. We also believe there is room for EUR/CHF to play catch up with the move higher in EUR/USD since late last year. The SNB has been intervening to support the CHF recently. With inflation pressure globally and in Switzerland now easing, the SNB could become more tolerant of allowing the CHF to weaken somewhat.”

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USD/CNH: A sustainable drop below 6.7000 looks unlikely – UOB

Economist Lee Sue Ann and Markets Strategist Quek Ser Leang at UOB Group note that a convincing breach of 6.7000 in USD/CNH remains unlikely.

Key Quotes

24-hour view: “Yesterday, we highlighted that USD ‘could break the major support at 6.7500’. We added, ‘the next support at 6.7000 is unlikely to come into view’. Our view was not wrong as USD dropped to a low of 6.7250. Despite the relatively large decline, downward momentum has not improved significantly. While there is room for USD to weaken to 7.0000, a sustained decline below this major support is unlikely today. Overall, only a breach of 6.7620 (minor resistance is at 6.7480) would indicate that the USD weakness has stabilized.”

Next 1-3 weeks: “We have expected USD to weaken since last week. As USD fell, we indicated in our most recent narrative from Tuesday (10 January, spot at 6.7850) that USD is likely to weaken further and that a break of 6.7500 will shift the focus to 6.7000. USD took out 6.7500 in NY trade yesterday and plummeted to a low of 6.7250. We continue to expect USD weakness even though after such a large decline over a short period, the prospect of a sustained drop below 6.7000 is not high. On the upside, a breach of 6.7920 (‘strong resistance’ level was at 6.8250 yesterday) would indicate that the USD weakness has run its course.”

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NDRC: China is confident in its ability to keep prices stable

Despite an uptick in China’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) in December, the country’s state planner, the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), said on Thursday that “China is confident in its ability to keep prices stable.”

Additional quotes

“China has a solid basis to keep prices stable in 2023.”

“In 2023, imported inflation pressure will remain in China.”

Market reaction

AUD/USD is unfazed by the above comments, keeping its range at around 0.6915, up 0.24% on the day.

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USD/CHF Price Analysis: Rises back above 0.9200 as bullish harami emerges

USD/CHF rebounds around 0.9170s as buyers stepped in, lifting the pair nearby 0.9200.
For the USD/CHF to extend its losses, it needs a daily close below 0.9200.
Otherwise, a bullish harami candlestick pattern could exacerbate a USD/CHF rally toward 0.9300.

USD/CHF is trimming Monday’s losses and bounces from daily lows, as sellers failed to gain traction beneath the 0.9200 figure, achieving a daily low of 0.9194 before giving way to buyers. Therefore, the USD/CHF is forming a bullish harami candlestick pattern, pending confirmation. Therefore, the USD/CHF is trading at 0.9234, gaining 0.25%.

USD/CHF Price Analysis: Technical outlook

After failing to extend its losses below 0.9167, the USD/CHF stages a comeback. Formation of a bullish harami could open the door for further upside, though it needs to be confirmed once the USD/CHF reclaims 0.9292. If that scenario is achieved, then the USD/CHF next resistance would be the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), which tracks bullish/bearishness price action in the pair, at 0.9299. followed by the last week’s high of 0.9409.

However, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains at bearish territory, though aiming up, keeping buyer hopeful of higher prices.

As an alternate scenario, the USD/CHF key support levels would be the 0.9200 figure, followed by the January 9 daily low of 0.9167, ahead of the 0.9100 mark.

USD/CHF Key Technical Levels

 

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Silver Price Analysis: XAG/USD retreats from multi-day top, technical setup favours bulls

Silver struggles to capitalize on its modest intraday gains beyond the $24.00 mark.
The technical set-up favours bullish traders and supports prospects for further gains.
A convincing break below the $23.00 mark is needed to negate the positive outlook.

Silver builds on Friday’s goodish rebound from the vicinity of the $23.00 mark and gains some follow-through traction on the first day of a new week. The white metal, however, struggles to find acceptance above the $24.00 round figure and retreats from a three-day high touched during the first half of the European session.

The XAG/USD, meanwhile, manages to defend the 100-period SMA on the 4-hour chart, around the $23.70 area, and the technical set-up still seems tilted in favour of bullish traders. The outlook is reinforced by positive oscillators on daily/hourly charts. That said, it will still be prudent to wait for a sustained strength beyond the $24.00 mark before positioning for any further appreciating move.

The XAG/USD might then aim to surpass an intermediate hurdle near the $24.25 region, which is followed by the multi-month high, around the $24.50-$24.55 region touched last week. Some follow-through buying beyond the latter will be seen as a fresh trigger for bullish traders and lift spot prices further towards reclaiming the $25.00 psychological mark for the first time since April 2022.

On the flip side, the $23.20-$23.10 area now seems to have emerged as immediate support ahead of the $23.00 round figure. A convincing break below could drag the XAG/USD towards the $22.60-$22.55 region en route to the next relevant support near the $22.10-$22.00 horizontal zone. Failure to defend the latter will mark a breakdown and set the stage for a further near-term depreciating move.

Silver 4-hour chart

Key levels to watch

 

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