USD/JPY, GBP/JPY Extend Gains for Fourth Consecutive Day. Where to Next?


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Most Read: GBP/USD Hovers at Key Inflection Point Ahead of Inflation and GDP Data

The Japanese Yen has continued its struggles this week losing ground to both the Greenback and the British Pound. This comes despite the recent policy tweak from the BoJ as the summary of opinions failed to excite Japanese Yen bulls.

Given the surprise sprung by the Bank of Japan in tweaking Yield Curve Control policy despite repeated comments that such a move is not needed, I wouldn’t rule out further surprises from the BoJ. At this stage comments from the BoJ are best taken with a pinch of salt as the shadow of FX intervention remains a possibility.

On another note, Japanese PM Kishida fielded question on a potential Cabinet reshuffle. The PM confirmed nothing has been decided yet, however the chance of a change to the finance portfolio or a potential removal of Masato Kanda seems unlikely as the BoJ looks to normalize policy over the medium-to-longer term. At this stage one would venture a guess that stability is important, but it is worth keeping an eye on.

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How to Trade USD/JPY


US CPI earlier this afternoon saw the Dollar gain against the Yen just as it appeared to be running out of steam. The rally in USDJPY now sees the pair within a whisker of the 145.00 psychological level. Now I have continued to mention this relentlessly over the past few weeks that FX intervention remains on the cards with the BoJ stating that they will intervene if we see excessive moves. I for one think the BoJ may only act should the Yen lose around 2% or more to the US Dollar in a 24-hour period. However, as seen with the YCC tweak the Central Bank could just as easily spring a surprise when markets least expect. Later in the day we also have policymakers of the Federal Reserve speaking which could have an

Looking at the Pound which has also rallied higher against the Yen testing the YTD highs today. Tomorrow brings UK GDP data, and this could have an impact on the Pounds outlook with UK inflation due next week which should paint a clearer picture of the Bank of England’s (BoE) monetary policy stance.

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GBPJPY has been on a tear in 2023 printing a fresh high this afternoon just above the 184.00 handle. Last week’s steep drop-off came about following the tweak in YCC policy with the Yen unable to hold onto gains. A push higher from here faces stiff resistance in the form of the psychological 185.00 handle which could prove problematic at present. UK GDP tomorrow and inflation next week could be just the impetus the GBP needs to resume its bullish price action.

Alternatively, any attempt at a deeper retracement could find the going tough as the 20 and 50-day MAs rest at 181.60 and 180.60 respectively. Structure on the daily timeframe remains bullish and dictates that a daily candle close below the swing low around 1.8060 for a change in structure to take place.

Taking a quick look at the IG Client Sentiment Data whichshows retail traders are 78% net-short with the ratio of traders short to long at 3.54 to 1.

For a more in-depth look at GBP/USD sentiment, download the free guide below.

of clients are net long.

of clients are net short.

Change in






GBPJPY Daily Chart


Source: TradingView, prepared by Zain Vawda

Key Levels to Keep an Eye On:

Support levels:

Resistance levels:

185.00 (psychological level)187.50


USD/JPY Daily Chart


Source: TradingView, prepared by Zain Vawda

From a technical perspective, USD/JPY is on its way to the 145.00 handle and eyeing a fourth successive day of losses. The hurdle at 145.00 remains key if price is heading toward the 2022 highs above the 150.00 mark (intervention occurred when price breached this level previously).

Today’s daily candle is also breaking out of the long-term descending triangle (2022 high). A daily candle close above the descending trendline could open up a run toward the 2022 highs. Of course, there is still some key resistance levels ahead but without any intervention from the BoJ its looking more like when rather than if.

Key Levels to Keep an Eye On:

Resistance levels:

Support levels:

143.40141.58 (50-day MA)140.00

— Written by Zain Vawda for

Contact and follow Zain on Twitter: @zvawda

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Nvidia Stock Forecast: NVDA re-gains 50-day SMA after US CPI


NVDA stock tracked below the 50-SMA on Wednesday following Biden semiconductor export limits.
US CPI for July shows core inflation continuing to recede.
NASDAQ 100 futures rose 1.1% early Thursday on CPI beat.
Chinese tech giants have at least $9 billion worth of orders for Nvidia’s A800 GPU.

Nvidia (NVDA) stock reversed course and moved above the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) after closing below it on Wednesday for the first time since early January. NVDA stock is trading up 2.2% near $435 a half hour into Thursday’s session.

The leading semiconductor designer dropped 4.7% on Wednesday following news that US President Joe Biden has signed an executive order to limit investment by US corporations in specific hi-tech industries.

The July US Consumer Price Index (CPI) came in below expectations on Thursday morning, which largely boosted tech stocks. The NASDAQ Composite jumped 1.6% on the news. Core inflation rose 4.7% YoY, and headline inflation gained 3.2% YoY. Both readings were 10 basis points below consensus.

Nvidia stock news: Biden administration to limit Chinese investment

Wednesday afternoon the Biden administration adopted an executive order that would limit US corporations from investing in the semiconductor, microelectronic, quantum information technology, and artificial intelligence industries of China. The latter’s foreign ministry decried the new stringent regulations.

“This program will seek to prevent foreign countries of concern from exploiting U.S. investment in this narrow set of technologies that are critical to support their development of military, intelligence, surveillance, and cyber-enabled capabilities that risk US national security,” the White House said in a written statement.

The Financial Times simultaneously reported that Chinese heavyweights in the consumer internet sector have ordered more than $5 billion worth of Nvidia chips in an attempt to stockpile them ahead of a more restrictive environment. Those tech companies include Alibaba (BABA), Tencent (TCEHY), Baidu (BIDU) and ByteDance – which all have orders for upwards of $1 billion worth of A800 GPUs with delivery timelines in 2023. For 2024, they have at least another $4 billion worth of orders already penciled in.

Nvidia designed the A800 last year in order to circumvent rules from Washington regarding state-of-the-art semiconductor technology headed to China. The A800 has a slower transfer rate than the A100 it is modeled on that is used in data centers to deal with the heavy compute required for training large language models and other generative AI technologies.

On Monday, a Morgan Stanley team released a client note arguing that the AI rally this year is in its “later innings”. Noting that Nvidia and other prominent AI-related stocks have more than tripled their share prices year to date, the team captained by equity strategist Edward Stanley said that this rally had already surpassed other niche bubbles that on average see gains of 150% over a three-year period.

Citi reiterated its Buy rating and $560 price target on NVDA stock on Wednesday following Nvidia’s unveiling of its GH200 Grace-Hopper superchip. The chip platform comes with triple the bandwidth and memory of the most recent generation of chips and is designed to deal with heavier generative AI workloads at data centers.

Nvidia is slated to report second-quarter earnings on August 23. After the company raised its outlook last quarter, Wall Street analysts now expected adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $2.07 on revenues of $11.06 billion.

Semiconductor stocks FAQs

A semiconductor is a term for various types of computer chips. Officially called semiconductor devices, these computer chips rely on semiconductor materials like silicon and gallium arsenide to process the electrical current that produces the modern world of computing. They come in many shapes, sizes, enhancements and configurations such as diodes, transistors and integrated circuits to more complicated applications like DRAM memory, simple processors and even GPUs.

First, there are the pure chip designers, such as Nvidia, AMD, Broadcom and Qualcomm. These companies use sophisticated software to design and test chips. Second, there are the equipment manufacturers that provide the machines necessary to build computer chips. These include ASML and Lam Research. Then, there are foundries that manufacture the chips. These include Taiwan Semiconductor and GlobalFoundries. Last of all are the integrated device manufacturers who design their own chips and additionally manufacture themselves. These include Samsung and Intel.

It is the observation that the number of transistors in an integrated circuit doubles every two years. The “law” is named after Gordon Moore, who founded Fairchild Semiconductor and later Intel. The doubling is possible due to the shrinking size of process nodes or parts in the computer chip. In 1971 the advanced commercial manufacturing had reached 10 microns in width. In 1987 semiconductor technology had advanced to 800 nanometers in width. By 1999, this process had moved to 180 nanometers. By 2007, the size had dropped to 32 nanometers, and this fell all the way to 3 nanometers in 2022, which is close to the size of human DNA.

In 2022, the global semiconductor industry had revenues just under $600 billion. In total, the industry shipped 1.15 trillion semiconductor units in 2021. The leading nations involved in the semiconductor supply chain are Taiwan, the United States, China, the Netherlands, South Korea, Japan and Israel.


Nvidia stock forecast: A break of 50-day SMA speaks volumes

As previously mentioned, NVDA stock closed below the 50-day SMA on Wednesday. It has traded above this moving average since January 9, so that works out to roughly an 8-month uptrend.

Nvidia stock had to consolidate at some point, and there are plenty of support levels nearby that might serve as decent entries for longs. It is now trading right near the $420 price level that served as both resistance (May 30) and support (June and July). The $400 level worked as support on several occasions from May 30 through June 26, and below there comes the demand zone stretching from $373 to $378. 

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) began its bearish turn lower in late June and it could soon trend below the zero threshold, which would be a much stronger bearish warning for bulls. In mid-July, Nvidia stock ran into stubborn resistance just around $480.

NVDA daily chart

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Euro Outlook Improves on Bank Tax Clarity: EUR/USD, EUR/JPY, EUR/AUD

Euro (EUR/USD, EUR/JPY, EUR/AUD) Analysis

European markets rebound positively to Italian bank tax clarityEUR/USD attempts to claw back yesterday’s lossesEUR/JPY gears up for retest of yearly high on improved Euro sentimentEUR/AUD to retest yearly high after yesterday’s drop?The analysis in this article makes use of chart patterns and key support and resistance levels. For more information visit our comprehensive education library

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European Markets Respond Positively to Italian Bank Tax Clarity

European assets began trading on the front foot this morning after the announcement of a surprising Italian bank tax sent markets lower yesterday. The tax had been brought up before but had since gone off the boil, so while markets saw it as a shock, it’s not something that came completely out of nowhere.

Nevertheless, the lack of clarity around the magnitude of the tax had markets concerned, sending Italian and European banking stocks sharply lower. The mood has eased this morning after receiving clarity that the tax will not exceed 0.1% of bank assets.

Scheduled risk events remain light this week, particularly on a European level, with everyone now focused on US inflation data on Thursday and PPI on Friday.

Customize and filter live economic data via our DailyFX economic calendar

EUR/USD Attempts to Claw Back Yesterday’s Losses

The EUR/USD pair trades up this morning, yet to fully retrace yesterday’s losses. The pair has hinted at a bearish breakdown ever since providing a daily close below trendline support on the 2nd of August. As is often the case, a prudent approach to assessing breakouts leans on a retest of the trendline and bounce lower before contemplating further downside plays.

Yesterday’s price action revealed a bounce lower off confluence resistance at the intersection of the 1.1012 prior high, the underside of trendline resistance (prior support) and a tag of channel resistance. Hence, despite today’s lift in prices there could be further euro weakness to come. Support comes in at 1.0910 followed by 1.0831. A rise above 1.1012 places the bearish outlook in doubt while a move above 1.1100 suggests a reexamination of the bearish view.

EUR/USD Daily Chart


Source: TradingView, prepared by Richard Snow

EUR/JPY Gears up for Retest of Yearly High on Improved Euro Sentiment

EUR/JPY heads higher on the back of the broader lift in European assets and the inability for the Japanese yen to extend gains after the July central bank meeting. The yen has more than surrendered recent gains after Japanese officials clarified that the tweak to yield curve control was put initiated in order to maintain current loose monetary policy in a sustainable fashion, rather than a step towards normalization.

The pair now trades back within the larger ascending channel with 157.94 well in sight once again. This level has proven difficult to break above, having been approached multiples times since June without a break and hold above it. It is difficult to find bullish drivers in the euro now that a small section of the ECB has even expressed doubts over one more 25 bps in September – with one last hike into year-end remaining the consensus. Core inflation however, could downside risks for the euro but has struggled to effect bullish moves in the currency recently as inflation has shown progress at a time when GBP saw a slight lift in Q2.

Immediate support rests at 156.85, followed by the 153.45 level. Upside resistance holds steady at 157.94.

EUR/JPY Daily Chart


Source: TradingView, prepared by Richard Snow

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EUR/AUD to Retest Yearly High after Yesterday’s Drop?

EUR/AUD posted a significant rise (around 3% or 480 pips) after the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) voted to hold rates for a second time. The pair remains linked to the ongoing misfortunes of the Chinese economy which initially had the pair trading higher yesterday before the pulling back to end flat.

China has received an unfortunate ‘one-two’ combination, backing up poor trade data on Tuesday with confirmation of deflating consumer prices in the early hours of this morning. Other advanced economies, even Japan, are experiencing rising prices – opening the door for Chinese authorities to provide substantial support instead of smaller targeted pockets of stimulus. Stubborn Australian inflation remains a potential downside risk for the pair, however the nations proximity to China may be too strong of an influence ahead of the next meeting. Look out for RBA minutes next week.

A worsening Chinese outlook does not bode well for the Aussie dollar, meaning upside continuation remains in sight provided prices do not drop below 1.6554. Immediate resistance appears at 1.6787 with the yearly high of 1.6860 thereafter.

EUR/AUD Daily Chart


Source: TradingView, prepared by Richard Snow

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Euro regains the smile and looks to retake 1.1000


Euro reclaims part of the ground lost vs. the US Dollar.
Stocks in Europe open the session with a decent bounce.
EUR/USD approaches 1.1000 on improved risk appetite.
The USD Index (DXY) returns to the low 102.00s.
Chinese inflation figures surprised to the upside in July.

Following two consecutive sessions of losses, the Euro (EUR) has managed to regain its composure and overcome some of the recent pessimism against the US Dollar (USD). This has resulted in EUR/USD showing resilience and attempting to surpass the psychological barrier of 1.1000 on Wednesday.

The improved overall sentiment in terms of risk appetite has put pressure on the Greenback, giving the pair an extra boost in the middle of the week. This is happening at a time when there is still uncertainty regarding the direction of both US and German yields, as market participants eagerly await the release of important US inflation data measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI) on Thursday.

In the broader context of monetary policy, there have been no notable changes. Investors still anticipate that the Federal Reserve will maintain its current interest rates for the rest of the year, while the European Central Bank (ECB) is facing internal divisions within its Council regarding the continuation of its tightening measures after the summer.

In terms of economic data, there will be limited releases on both sides of the Atlantic during this session. The only notable data point expected later in the North American session is the weekly Mortgage Applications tracked by the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA).

Daily digest market movers: Euro finds some respite to the weekly bearishness

The EUR moves closer to 1.1000 vs. the USD on Wednesday.
The USD Index (DXY) abandons the area of tops near 102.90.
The risk-on mood underpins the pair’s recovery so far.
Chinese CPI dropped 0.3% YoY in July; PPI decreased 4.4% YoY.
CME Group’s FedWatch Tool sees no extra hikes by the Fed in H2 2023.
Speculation that the Fed might have ended its hiking cycle remains steady.
Markets’ appear focused on the US CPI due on August 11.

Technical Analysis: Euro faces immediate up-barrier at 1.1150

EUR/USD manages well to attempt a decent rebound and refocus its attention to the key 1.1000 region so far on Wednesday.

Breaking through the 1.0920 range, where the monthly low aligns with the crossing of the interim 55-day and 100-day SMAs exposes EUR/USD to potential downside movement. This could drive spot toward the July low of 1.0833 (July 6). Such a downward move might precede a further decline toward the significant 200-day SMA at 1.0760 ahead of the May low of 1.0635 (May 31). Deeper down lies the March low of 1.0516 (March 15), and subsequently, the 2023 low at 1.0481 (January 6).

In contrast, sporadic bullish attempts could encourage the pair to challenge the psychological 1.1000 mark prior to the weekly top at 1.1149 seen on (July 27). Should this level be surpassed, it might help alleviate some of the downward pressure, potentially motivating the pair to test the 2023 peak of 1.1275 (July 18). Once this threshold is breached, significant resistance levels become less prominent until the peak of 2022 at 1.1495 (February 10), closely followed by the round level of 1.1500.

Furthermore, the optimistic outlook for EUR/USD remains valid as long as the pair maintains its position above the crucial 200-day SMA.

Euro FAQs

The Euro is the currency for the 20 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day.
EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%).

The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy.
The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa.
The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde.

Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control.
Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money.

Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency.
A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall.
Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy.

Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period.
If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.

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How to become a successful Forex trader?

2023.08.08 2023.08.08
How to become a successful Forex trader?logo

A standard understanding of successful Forex traders is far from reality. The media portray them sitting in a penthouse in expensive suits in front of several monitors. When we see such pictures everywhere, it’s hard to believe that a successful forex trader looks and behaves like ordinary people.  

The article covers the following subjects:

Successful traders in the media

Successful trading results from balancing emotions, desires, work, and leisure time. A successful forex trader finally realizes they don’t need most things advertized on beautiful banners even if they can afford them.

Retail Forex traders are OK with one or two monitors and usually work from home. Hedge funds don’t need to have an office in a penthouse. One can make profits from online trading in a common building, too.

Who is a Forex trader?

In the general sense of the word, a trader is a person who trades in various assets on a stock exchange: currencies, stocks, bonds, derivatives, and other assets that can be bought and sold.

Forex traders fall into two major categories.

1. Institutional traders

They develop a Forex trading career at a bank or an investment company. They conduct trades on a company’s behalf and using its money. At the same time, they can have their own trading strategy and be successful Forex traders. Also, include here traders whose goal is corporate risk hedging and not making a profit. For example, flour producers who buy wheat futures.

An institutional trader conducts a trade at a client’s request

2. Retail traders

They trade in the foreign exchange market in their name or on behalf of their own company using their personal funds. A professional retail trader makes money by conducting trades according to their trading strategy. Successful Forex traders can also act as a trustee and manage other investors’ capital. Unlike brokers, a trader cannot trade on behalf of third parties.

How does fx market trading work?

Forex trades are subdivided into two categories: directed and undirected trades.

Directed trades aim to profit from an asset’s future price changes. For example, you buy the eur/usd at 1.08 and sell it at 1.09 later. Retail traders or investment companies conduct such trades. Directed trades imply opening and closing a trade. For example, you buy the EURUSD and then sell it later at a higher price to speculate on a price change.

Directed trades. Buying at a lower price and selling at a higher price.

Undirected trades aim to buy or sell an asset. Such traders do not think about future price behavior. For example, a tourist from the USA buys the eur/usd because they need euros for their trip across Europe. Or, a Japanese company buys the USDJPY because it has to purchase some US equipment. Such trades mean a person or a company does not aim to speculate.

To start trading Forex, you will need a regulated broker or a bank that offers brokerage services. Traders can use special trading software or place orders remotely by calling their broker.

How do I become a Forex trader?

To start Forex trading, you must choose a broker, open an account and place buy and sell orders through a trading platform. You will need many hours of practice to become a successful Forex trader and turn trading into your main income source. You’ll have to develop trading skills and analyze your emotional reactions when trading in the Forex market.

You must register with a broker to open a trading account. Then, you’ll have access to your trading stats, accounts, and their parameters, such as leverage, deposit, account type, etc.

Client personal profile at LiteFinance showing information on the trader, their money, and open accounts

To become successful in Forex trading, you need to open a demo account first. Then, practice using indicators and test trading strategies you may have found. The next part of your trading journey will include two components:

Analysis of statistics, i.e., improving your trading strategy;

Analysis of your emotional reactions and control, i.e., work on system trading where you implicitly follow your trading strategy.

Forex trader success criteria

Success shouldn’t be measured in material things you spend your Forex trading income on. It should be estimated in statistical data:

How many trades were conducted in line with your trading strategy?

What is the capital profitability ratio over a given period?

How many months in a year have been profitable?

You can have 95% of system trades but lose all the money in one non-system trade, so the other two indicators will be negative. You can make huge profits, double or treble your risk capital, and have trading losses in the next months. Or, you can have stable monthly profits, but your trading cannot be considered successful if the profit ratio is around zero.

You’ll have to improve each of the three indicators to achieve good results. They are like three table legs: all of them are important. The better the three criteria are, the more professional a trader is.

Other success criteria are:

The more capital a Forex trader manages, the more their trading efficiency is as they can earn more with the same profit ratio. Also, a long profit-yielding period means that a trader’s trading program can adapt fast to market conditions, such as volatility and liquidity.

Risk Management and Forex Trading

However much a successful Forex trader may earn, they can lose everything in a single trade — all the profits and the initial investment — unless they place a stop loss!

Risk management is money control amid uncertainty inherent in all financial markets, including Forex. The price can rise or fall, fast or slowly, at any moment. A trader cannot succeed in Forex trading without understanding Forex trading risks.

The main risk management rules:

Observe the rules of your trading system. Deviating from their trading plan, a trader risks worsening their results and missing profits.

Limit the volume of future trades. If a Forex trader uses too much money in a single trade, let’s say 5% of the deposit, a series of 5 loss-making trades will decrease their capital by approximately 23% ;

Trade in liquid assets. The major currency pairs have tight spreads, which attracts fx traders as actual entry and exit levels usually correspond to the projected ones, with some exceptions. The lower liquidity is, the worse entry and exit levels are, which will lower profits and increase losses.

Spread of 2 points, the major currency pair EUR/USD.

So, a trader should:

place stop loss orders to limit losses in advance;

risk no more than 1% of capital per trade, for example;

trade in liquid assets. With intraday trading, it’s advisable to trade during an asset’s liquid hours.

Ten ways to become successful forex traders

To succeed, you must act systematically, according to the plan, and stick to certain trading rules.

Examine all available Forex trading styles: pipsing, scalping, day trading, swing trading, or position trading. Pick a trading style that suits your temper and fits into your schedule.

Ignore other fx traders’ forecasts: no one knows all the reasons for market moves on a price chart. However, some professional traders’ advice can be worth considering.

Don’t think about earning a specific amount; think about becoming a good trader.

Try to use various currency pairs and technical analysis tools. Focus on those that yield the best results.

Examine your reactions to unprofitable and profitable trades, correct or incorrect predictions, and missed trading profits. Write down your emotions on paper — all that will help your mind to adapt and increase the percentage of successful system trades.

Examine and test various capital management methods, such as fixed-fractional or fixed-ratio strategies.

Compare your actual trading results only with past performance.

Trade on a Forex platform or tester using virtual funds as long as possible to acquire trading experience and learn faster.

Don’t expect fast results. You should have realistic expectations! Specialists need at least four years of training to start a career in any sector. To become a successful trader from scratch, you’ll also need time.

Remember two Forex trading postulates: “I’m not the smartest” and “Spare a little for a poor guy.” The former means that a person cannot predict market movements. The latter says that you shouldn’t seek buying at the low and selling at the high all the time — let the one who entered the market later earn too!

Forex trading risks

The first substantial risk is linked to leverage. The Forex market allows you to operate sums 1,000 times larger than your deposit. Even a successful trader should observe risk management rules, or they can lose the whole capital after one slight price fluctuation.

Still, there always exists the risk of slippage when an order is executed at a worse-than-expected price, even if you trade systematically and respect risk management. That occurs when liquidity falls, and there’s no counterparty for your trade at a given price. Thus, a trader risks losing money. Slippages often occur during important news releases when a price moves drastically in opposite directions.

US retail sales statistics and market reaction at the opening of the US trading session

The third risk involved in Forex trading is connected to a trader’s mental and emotional state after a series of bad trades, called “tilt.” In that state, a trader’s decisions are emotional and usually result in inconsistent trading. To handle that, traders are recommended to limit the number of trades a day, a week, or a month and stop trading once that number is reached.

The associated Forex trading risks concern a broker’s good faith, Internet connection stability, and the operability of a computer or another device used to trade on Forex.

Key takeaways

Many traders share the same problem: they trade hastily to achieve profits and become successful and disregard trading plans, if they have any. Instead of gaining free trading experience using Forex testers, examining technical indicators, and determining entry/exit points based on a currency pair’s peculiarities, a trader gets desperate to earn with minimum initial investment.

As a result, money management and the analysis of risks associated with the technical side of trading, such as slippages or requotes, shift to the background. Hence, larger trading volumes, money losses, and lack of motivation to continue.

In contrast to the popular idea that trading activity is a special trading business, it just requires systematic studies and practice, like any other activity. Consistently profitable trading starts when a trader fully masters their trading system developed in line with their temper, market understanding, emotions, goals, and expectations. Such a transformation needs time.

Questions on how to become a successful Forex trader


The content of this article reflects the author’s opinion and does not necessarily reflect the official position of LiteFinance. The material published on this page is provided for informational purposes only and should not be considered as the provision of investment advice for the purposes of Directive 2004/39/EC.

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Bitcoin Price Latest: BTC/USD Remains Lifeless But Has it Found a Bottom?

Bitcoin (BTC) Prices, Charts, and Analysis:

Data shows Bitcoin volatility is extremely lowAttention remains on the SEC and their views on cash Bitcoin ETFs.PayPal launching a US dollar-backed stablecoin.

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Bitcoin continues to show little sign of life with the cash price stuck in a narrow range over the last 10 weeks. Volatility is at a multi-month low with analysts at Bitcoin on-chain data specialists Glassnode pointing out that ‘The 30-day price range is even more extreme, constricting price to just a 9.8% band over the last month, and with only 2.8% of all months being tighter.Periods of consolidation and price compression at this magnitude are extremely rare events for Bitcoin.’ The 14-day ATR volatility indicator is also showing the uber-low levels of current price action and is at a low last seen in early January this year

The BlackRock spot Bitcoin ETF fever that sparked the last round of volatility in mid-June seems to have faded with the SEC not expected to give a decision on any of the spot Bitcoin ETFs until September at the earliest. The low volatility suggests that holders of Bitcoin are not selling ahead of any decision, while buyers remain reticent at current levels.

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In other crypto news, online payments giant PayPal announced Monday the upcoming launch of a US dollar-pegged stablecoin PayPal USD (PYUSD). According to the news release, ‘PYUSD is fully backed by U.S. dollar deposits, short-term U.S. treasuries, and similar cash equivalents, and can be redeemed 1:1 for U.S. dollars.’

PayPal Launches U.S. Dollar Stablecoin

Bitcoin remains stuck in a $28.6k to $31.8k range but sits near the lower end of this range. The outlook remains mixed with the 20-dma crossing below the 50-dma, while BTC/USD is supported by the longer-dated 200-simple moving average. Despite the current low levels of volatility, Bitcoin could easily make a run at either support or resistance in the coming days. To do this there needs to be a fundamental driver as the technical picture is mixed at the moment. Bitcoin may be down, but is definitely not out.

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Bitcoin (BTC/USD) Daily Price Chart – August 8, 2023

What is your view on Bitcoin – bullish or bearish?? You can let us know via the form at the end of this piece or you can contact the author via Twitter @nickcawley1.

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GBP/USD Price Analysis: Cable justifies downbeat UK retail spending to reverse from 50-SMA to 1.2750


GBP/USD prints the first daily loss in three, holds lower grounds of late.
UK BRC Retail Sales suggest the lowest public spending in 11 months.
50-SMA precedes 1.2825-30 resistance confluence to test Pound Sterling buyers.
Upbeat oscillators suggest limited downside room despite presence of three-week-old bearish channel.

GBP/USD takes offers to refresh the intraday low near 1.2755, posting the first daily loss in three amid early Tuesday in Europe. In doing so, the Cable pair justifies downbeat UK data while reversing from the 50-SMA within a three-week-old bearish channel.

The latest survey from the British Retail Consortium (BRC) marked the weakest Retail Sales growth in 15 months as it prints the 1.8% YoY figure for July versus 4.2% prior. Following the data release, the BRC said, per Reuters, that the British retailers suffered from heavy rain in July on top of the impact of high inflation with sales growth dropping to an 11-month low.

Technically, the Pound Sterling reverses from the 50-SMA hurdle of around 1.2785 as the RSI (14) line retreats. However, the oscillators remain beyond the 50 level suggesting the upbeat momentum and keeping the GBP/USD buyers hopeful amid the bullish MACD signals.

With this, the quote is likely to cross the immediate upside hurdle surrounding 1.2785 with the aim for reclaim the 1.2800 round figure.

However, a convergence of the 200-SMA, the previous support line from May 25 and a top line of the aforementioned descending trend channel highlights the 1.2825-30 as a tough nut to crack for the GBP/USD bulls.

Meanwhile, the 1.2700 round figure and the latest low of 1.2620 can entertain GBP/USD sellers ahead of challenging them with the bottom line of the stated channel, close to 1.2585. It’s worth mentioning that June’s low of 1.2590 can also challenge the Cable bears around 1.2585–90 zone.

GBP/USD: Daily chart

Trend: Limited downside expected


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Yen Price Outlook: USD/JPY up After BoJ Minutes, GBP/JPY Consolidates

Japanese Yen (USD/JPY, GBP/JPY) Analysis

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BoJ Summary of Opinions Confirm Dovish Yield Curve Tweak

Bank of Japan (BoJ) officials looked to set the record straight, that the slight yield curve adjustment announced on the 28th of July was a means of prolonging current loose monetary policy in a sustainable way. The Bank decided to allow the 10-year Japanese Government Bond yield to trade ‘flexibly’ above 0.5% instead of enforcing this level as a cap.

Global markets anticipated that the slight change was a step towards eventual policy normalization as wages and inflation head higher. BoJ officials are yet to be convinced that the uptick in inflation is demand driven and likely to continue above 2% in a sustainable manner. As such, it would appear there is still some way to go before the Bank will be convinced to change course.

USD/JPY: Broad USD Uptrend Buoyed by Rising 10-Year Yields

The dollar appears to be clawing back losses that developed at the end of last week. Bullish momentum in the 10-year US treasury yield bodes well for the currency despite Friday’s pullback which wasn’t enough to wipe out the larger move. US CPI later this week should keep traders in their toes as a slight pick up in headline inflation is anticipated with a minor move lower forecasted for core inflation.

142.25 is the most immediate line of resistance, providing a tripwire for bullish continuation. Thereafter, the June swing high of 145 comes into view. On the short side, 138.20 – which is the level around the December yield curve announcement – appears as support, with 134.5 some distance away.

USD/JPY Daily Chart

Source: TradingView, prepared by Richard Snow

GBP/JPY: Bullish Momentum Stalls Near Swing High

The pound has struggled for momentum across G7 FX pairs after recording its first significant drop in core inflation in early July. Looking at the GBP/JPY pair, the period of broader consolidation has ensued since mid-June – with prices trading more or less inside the 179.82 – 184 levels if the sharp drop and immediate recovery around the 28 July BoJ meeting is put to the side.

More recent price action appears to reveal a bounce off the 2014 long-term level of 180.70. A drift higher towards 184 cannot be discounted, while the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement of the 2015 – 2016 move at 179.82 acts as the tripwire for a move lower with 174.85 as the next level of support.

GBP/JPY Daily Chart


Source: TradingView, prepared by Richard Snow

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British Pound (GBP) Forecasts: GBP/USD and EUR/GBP After BoE Hike

GBP/USD and EUR/GBP Analysis and Charts

GBP/USD is down one cent over the week in thin trade.EUR/GBP remains rangebound.

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UK Breaking News: BoE Hikes by 25bps to 15-Year High

The Bank of England raised interest rates by 25 basis points on Thursday, in line with market forecasts, and left the door open for a further hike at September’s meeting. The UK central bank has now raised interest rates, by varying degrees, for 14 months in a row as it tries to control stubbornly high inflation. The latest market pricing shows a 67% probability of a 25bp hike on September 21 with a terminal rate of a fraction under 5.75% in March next year. The BoE, as always, says that future rate decisions will be data-dependent.

The BoE also said on Thursday that it would look at the future rate of UK bond sales, QT, at the September meeting. A faster pace of UK bond sales may help to tighten monetary conditions at the margin and give the Bank of England a small amount of wiggle room if needed.

For all market-moving events and data releases see the real-time DailyFX Calendar

Cable is picking up a small bid ahead of the weekend after the latest US Jobs Report showed a slight slowdown in job creation in July. The June headline figure was also revised lower to 185k from 207k.

July Jobs Report: Payrolls Rise by 187k, Driving Action in Gold and the US Dollar

The daily chart shows a mixed cable outlook with the pair sitting on the 50-day simple moving average and between the 20- and 200-day moving averages. Support at 1.2666 was briefly broken yesterday and may not hold a re-test. On the upside, if GBP/USD can close and open above 1.27546, then it may have the impetus to push back towards 1.2900 although this may need some fundamentals drivers.

GBP/USD Daily Price Chart – August 4, 2023


Retail trader data shows 57.33% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders long to short at 1.34 to 1.

For a more in-depth look at GBP/USD sentiment, download the free guide below.

of clients are net long.

of clients are net short.

Change in






EUR/GBP remains stuck in a 0.8504 to 0.8721 range and will likely stay there in the coming weeks. The pair are back above the 20- and 50-day simple moving averages but remain below the longer-dated indicator. Again a major fundamental shift will be needed to break this range.

EUR/GBP Daily Price Chart – August 4, 2023


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What is your view on the British Pound – bullish or bearish?? You can let us know via the form at the end of this piece or you can contact the author via Twitter @nickcawley1.

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