Economic calendar for the week 26.06.2023 – 02.07.2023

No important macro statistics scheduled to be released.

Tuesday, June 27

12:30 USD Durable goods orders. Capital goods orders (ex defense and aviation)

This indicator reflects the value of orders received by producers of durable goods and capital goods (capital goods are durable commodities used to produce durable goods and services) involving large investments. Goods produced in the defense and aviation sectors of the US economy are not included in this indicator. A high result strengthens the USD.

Previous values of the indicator “Durable goods orders”: -0.7% in April, +3.2% in March, -1.0% in February, -4.5% in January 2023, +5.6 % in December, -1.7% in November 2022, +0.7%, +0.3%, +0.2%, -0.1%, +2.2% in June, +0.8 % in May, +0.4% in April, +0.6% in March, -1.7% in February, +1.6% in January.

Previous values of the indicator “capital goods orders excluding defense and aviation”: +1.3% in April, -0.6% in March, -0.1%, +0.8% in January 2023, -0, 1% in December, 0% in November 2022, +0.3% in October, -0.8% in September, +0.8% in August, +0.3% in July, +0.9% in June, +0.6% in May, +0.3% in April, +1.1% in March, -0.3% in February, +1.3% in January.

In theory, the relative growth of the indicator has a positive impact on the dollar, and the decline of the indicator is negative. The market reaction to its negative value may also be negative for the dollar in the short term. Data worse than the previous value and/or the forecast will also have a negative impact on dollar quotes.

Better-than-expected data will have a positive impact on the dollar.

Forecast for May: -1.0% and 0%, respectively.

12:30 CAD Core Consumer Price Index in Canada

Core Consumer Price Index (Core CPI) from the Bank of Canada reflects the dynamics of retail prices of the corresponding basket of goods and services (excluding fruits, vegetables, gasoline, fuel oil, natural gas, mortgage interest, intercity transportation, and tobacco products). The inflation target for the Bank of Canada is in the range of 1%-3%. The rising CPI is a harbinger of a rate hike and positive for the CAD. The value of Core CPI in the previous month amounted to +0.5% (+4.1% in annual terms).

If the expected data turns out to be worse than the previous values, this will negatively affect the CAD. Data better than previous values will strengthen the Canadian dollar.

Forecast for May: +0.5% (+3.7% in annual terms).

Wednesday, June 28

01:30 AUD Consumer Price Index

The Consumer Price Inflation Index (CPI) published by the RBA and the Australian Bureau of Statistics evaluates the dynamics of retail prices for goods and services in Australia. CPI is the most significant indicator of inflation and changes in consumer preferences. A high value is positive for the AUD, while a low value is negative.

Previous values of the indicator: 6.8%, 6.1%, 6.8%, 7.4% (in January 2023).

The Australian central bank’s CPI inflation target is in the range of 2% – 3%. As follows from the minutes of a recent RBA meeting, in order to return inflation to the target level, “further interest rate increases will be required over time”, and “further steps are needed in the coming months to normalize monetary conditions in Australia.”

It is worth noting that earlier the minutes of the RBA said that “the Central Bank will not raise rates until it reaches the CPI inflation target of 2-3% on a sustainable basis. It won’t happen before 2024.” It seems that the situation has changed, and now the RBA, like most other major world central banks, is facing the problem of accelerating inflation.

The expected positive value of the indicator is likely to support the AUD. If the indicator comes out with a value worse than the forecast, this will negatively affect the AUD in the short term.

20:30 USD Bank stress test results

The bank stress tests prepared by the Fed reflect the reactions of the largest US banks to various artificially created financial and market conditions.

The results of these stress tests help determine the soundness of banks and the ability to repay government loans, influencing the monetary policy of the central bank.

Thursday, June 29

01:30 AUDRetail sales index

Retail Sales Index is published monthly by the Australian Bureau of Statistics and measures total retail sales. The index is often considered an indicator of consumer confidence and reflects the state of the retail sector in the short term. The growth of the index is usually a positive factor for the AUD; a decrease in the indicator will negatively affect the AUD. Previous index value (for April): 0% (after +0.4%, +0.2%, +1.9%, -3.9%, +1.7%, +0.4%, +0, 6%, +0.6%, +1.3%, +0.2% in previous months). If the data turns out to be weaker than the previous value, the AUD may drop sharply in the short term, above the previous values, then the AUD is likely to strengthen.

Forecast for May: +0.1%.

12:00 EUR Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) in Germany (preliminary release)

This index is published by the EU Statistics Office and is calculated on the basis of a statistical method agreed between all EU countries. It is an indicator for assessing inflation and is used by the Governing Council of the ECB to assess the level of price stability. A positive result strengthens the EUR, a negative result weakens it.

Previous indicator values: +6.3% in May, +7.6% in April, +7.8% in March, +9.3% in February, +9.2% in January, +9.6% in December, +11.3% in November, +11.6% in October, +10.9% in September, +8.8% in August, +8.5% in July, +8.2% in June, +8.7% in May, +7.8% in April, +7.6% in March, +5.5% in February, +5.1% in January 2022 (annualized). If the data for June is better than the previous values, the euro may strengthen in the short term. The growth of the indicator is a positive factor for the euro. The data suggests mounting inflationary pressures in Germany, which in turn is putting pressure on the ECB to tighten its monetary policy. Data worse than the previous value will have a negative impact on the euro.

June forecast: +6.7%.

12:30 USD US annual GDP for the 1st quarter (final estimate)

GDP is one of the key indicators (along with data on the labor market and inflation) for the Fed in terms of its monetary policy. A strong result strengthens US dollar; a weak report on GDP has a negative impact on the US dollar. In the previous 4th quarter, GDP grew by +2.6%, after growing by +3.2% in the 3rd quarter, falling by -0.6% in the 2nd quarter, -1.6% in the 1st Q4, +6.9% growth in Q4 2021, +2.3% in Q3, GDP grew +6.7% in Q2, +6.3% in Q1 2021. If the data points to a decline in GDP in the 1st quarter of 2023, the dollar will come under strong pressure. Positive data on GDP will support the dollar and US stock indices.

Forecast (final estimate): +1.3% (preliminary forecast was +2.7%, first estimate +1.1%, second estimate +1.3%).

Friday, June 30

01:30 CNY Chinese Manufacturing and Services PMI from the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing (CFLP)

This is an important indicator of the state of the Chinese economy as a whole. A result above 50 is seen as positive and strengthens the CNY, while a result below 50 as negative for the yuan. Previous values: 48.8, 49.2, 51.9, 52.6, 50.1 in January. The relative growth of the index and the value of 50 should have a positive effect on the CNY. The data above the value of 50 indicate an increase in activity, which has a positive effect on the quotes of the national currency. Otherwise, and if the value of the indicator is below 50 yuan, it will be under pressure and probably will decrease.

PMI in the services sector assesses the state of the services sector in the Chinese economy. A result above 50 is considered positive and strengthens the yuan. Previous values: 54.5, 56.4, 58.2, 56.3, 54.4 in January. Despite the relative decline, the indicator is still above 50, which is likely to have a positive impact on the yuan quotes. Otherwise, and if the value of the indicator is below 50 yuan, it will be under pressure and probably will decrease.

Forecast for June: 49.5, 50.8, respectively.

06:00 GBP UK Q1 GDP (final release)

GDP is considered an indicator of the overall health of the British economy. The growing trend of the GDP indicator is considered positive for the GBP. The UK GDP was one of the highest in the world until 2016, when the Brexit referendum was held. Then its growth slowed down, and with the onset of the global coronavirus pandemic, the growth rate of British GDP completely moved into negative territory.

Previous GDP values: +0.1% in Q4 2022, -0.3% in Q3, +0.2% in Q2, +0.8% in Q1 2022 y-o-y, +1.3% in Q4, +1.0% in Q3, +5.5% in Q2 after falling -1.6% in Q1 2021. The main factors that could force the Bank of England to keep the rate low are weak GDP and labor market growth, as well as low consumer spending. If GDP data turns out to be significantly worse than previous values, then this will put downward pressure on the pound. A strong GDP report will strengthen the pound.

Forecast for the 1st quarter of 2023 (final estimate): +0.1% (+0.2% in annual terms). The preliminary estimate was +0.1% (+0.2% in annual terms) while the forecast was -0.1% (+0.5% in annual terms).

06:00 EUR Retail sales in Germany

Retail sales is the main indicator of consumer spending in Germany showing the change in retail sales. A high result strengthens the euro, and vice versa, a low result weakens it. Previous values: +0.8% (-4.3% YoY), -2.4% (-8.6% YoY), -1.3% (-7.1% yoy) , -0.3% (-6.9% YoY), -5.3% (-6.4% YoY), +1.1% (-5.9% YoY), – 2.8% (-5.0% YoY), +0.9% (-0.9% YoY), -1.3% (-4.3% YoY), +1, 9% (-2.6% YoY), -1.5% (-9.6% YoY), +1.2% (+1.1% YoY), -5.4% (-0.4% YoY), +0.9% (-1.7% YoY), +0.2% (+6.9% YoY), -0.2% (+ 10.1% YoY) in January 2022.

The data speaks of the instability of the recovery of this sector of the German economy. Data better than the forecast and / or the previous value is likely to have a positive impact on the euro, but only in the short term.

Forecast for May: 0% (-6.7% in annual terms).

09:00 EUR Consumer Price Index. Core CPI (preliminary release)

Consumer Price Index (CPI) is published by Eurostat and measures the change in prices of a selected basket of goods and services over a given period. The index is a key indicator for assessing inflation and changing consumer preferences. A positive result strengthens the EUR, while a negative result weakens it.

Previous values: +6.1% in May, +7.0% in April, +8.5% in February, +8.6% in January, +9.2% in December, +10.1% in November , +10.6% in October, +9.9% in September, +9.1% in August, +8.6% in June, +8.1% in May, +7.4% in April and March, +5.9% in February, +5.1% in January, +5.0% in December. If the data turns out to be worse than the forecast, the euro may sharply decline in the short term. Data better than the forecast and / or the previous value may strengthen the euro in the short term. The target level of consumer inflation of the ECB is slightly below 2.0%, and the data indicate an acceleration of inflation in the Eurozone.

Core Consumer Price Index (Core CPI) determines the change in prices of a selected basket of goods and services over a given period and is a key indicator for assessing inflation and changing consumer preferences. Food and energy are excluded from this indicator for a more accurate estimate. A high result strengthens the EUR, while a low result weakens it. In January 2022, Core CPI increased by +5.3%, +2.3%, in February – by +2.7%, in March – by +2.9%, in April – by +3.5%, in May – by +3.8%, in June – by +3.7%, in August – by +4.3%, in September – by +4.8%, in October – by +5.0%, in November – by +5.0%, in December – by +5.2%.

Previous values: +5.3% in May, +5.6% in April, +8.5% in February 2023, +8.6%, +9.2%, +10.1%, +10, 6%, +9.9%, +9.1%, +8.9%, +8.6%, +8.1%, +7.4%, +7.4%, +5.9% , +5.1% (in January 2022).

If the data for June 2023 turns out to be worse than the previous value or forecast, this may negatively affect the euro. If the data turns out to be better than the forecast or the previous value, the euro is likely to react with an increase in quotations. Core inflation in the Eurozone is accelerating, which is positive (under normal economic conditions) for the euro.

Forecast for June: +5.6%, +5.5%, respectively.

Price chart of EURUSD in real time mode

The content of this article reflects the author’s opinion and does not necessarily reflect the official position of LiteFinance. The material published on this page is provided for informational purposes only and should not be considered as the provision of investment advice for the purposes of Directive 2004/39/EC.

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