Gold to come back. Forecast as of 31.05.2023

2023.05.31 2023.05.31
Gold to come back. Forecast as of 31.05.2023logo

The correction of the gold price in May became a kind of deviation from the topic. Since 2022, markets have feared that the Fed will go too far with rate hikes. And these fears can return to the market. How will gold react? Let’s talk about this topic and draw up a XAUUSD trading plan.

Weekly gold fundamental forecast

If earlier gold was perceived as a safe-haven asset and a tool for hedging against inflationary risks, then recently, it has turned into an indicator of global economic health. The XAUUSD rise in March-April was associated with an increase in the chances of a recession in the US, which, in theory, should have forced the Fed to turn dovish in 2023. In May, it turned out that the US economy was showing resistance to aggressive monetary tightening, which sent the gold price to six-week lows.

According to a survey of investors by MLIV Pulse, gold should have been the best investment option in case of a default. Allegedly, it did not fall as quickly as it should have fallen due to concerns about the inability of the United States to pay its obligations. If such reasoning is correct, the deal between the Republicans and Democrats on the national debt ceiling should have caused the XAUUSD to fall below 1900. It did not.

Of course, the bill hasn’t yet passed Congress. In 2011, Standard & Poor’s lowered the US credit rating after reaching an agreement, which Fitch can repeat. However, in my opinion, this is just an attempt by analysts to put a good face on a bad game.

In fact, the gold trend is quite dependent on Treasury yield and the US dollar. The latter were rising in May as the market had abandoned the idea of the Fed dovish shift, and the chance of the federal funds rate hike was up to 69%. CME derivatives give less than a 50% chance of a rate cut in December. In early May, this likelihood was much higher.

Dynamics of US dollar and gold

Source: Trading Economics

However, if we recall the November-April XAUUSD rally, we shall see it was based on fears that the Fed would go too far -tighten monetary policy so much that a soft landing in the US economy can be forgotten. As soon as this theory was no longer supported by the data, gold has been corrected down.

However, markets can easily revert to the previous narrative amid the statements by some FOMC officials that rates could reach 6%. In my opinion, even what the central bank has already done will lead to a slow cooling of the economy, bring back the risk of a recession, press down Treasury yields, and strengthen gold.

Dynamics of gold and Treasury yields

Source: Trading Economics

However, a decline in the US bond yields will be restricted by large-scale issuance of Treasury bonds and bills for $1.1 trillion over the next seven months. In this case, the gold rally will be held back.

Weekly XAUUSD trading plan

Thus, if the US domestic data worsen, especially the jobs market, the gold bull will win back a part of the losses. One could take the profit from the shorts entered earlier and enter longs when the price breaks out the resistance at $1965.

Price chart of XAUUSD in real time mode

The content of this article reflects the author’s opinion and does not necessarily reflect the official position of LiteFinance. The material published on this page is provided for informational purposes only and should not be considered as the provision of investment advice for the purposes of Directive 2004/39/EC.

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